Australia's security focus will continue to be the Asia-Pacific region, where Australia's security interests are most directly engaged. Australia remains positive about the outlook for strategic relations among the major Asia-Pacific powers and the prospects for the continued successful management of key inter-state regional security issues. In Australia's immediate region, however, there are some uncertainties, particularly in relation to the circumstances in a number of neighbouring countries. These are policy preoccupations for Australia, but do not at this stage carry serious implications for wider strategic stability.
There are still encouraging signs in many parts of the region of a cautious return to economic stability, but differing rates of economic growth following the financial crisis are changing strategic relativities among regional countries. This may exacerbate political, economic and cultural differences in ways that could create new sources of instability. The regional security environment will be affected by important factors such as implementation of good governance principles, accountability and economic reform.
Long-term strategic engagement by the United States in our region, particularly through its alliances with a number of regional countries, has provided the framework for stability and prosperity for most of the last thirty years, remains fundamental to the stability of the Asia Pacific region, and serves to maintain a balance among the major regional powers. The United States-Japan alliance, an important contributor to regional strategic stability, is being strengthened. Stable and productive United States-China relations are vital for regional and global stability and prosperity. Although United States-China relations experienced difficulty in the wake of the EP-3 accident, the common interests of the two countries far outweigh their differences. Continued close consultation between China and the United States on the full range of regional security issues is critical to the maintenance of regional stability.
Regular bilateral and multilateral security dialogues with regional countries are an important element in Australia's security strategy. These consultations provide an opportunity to share views on a wide range of regional security issues, promoting transparency and reinforcing Australia's commitment to working cooperatively with regional countries on security issues. The ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) will retain its position as a key forum for security dialogue. Australia sees the ARF continuing to make an important contribution to regional security through facilitating frank and comprehensive dialogue amongst member states, including in times of tension, and through confidence-building measures. The ARF has consolidated its confidence-building role, and Australia would like to work with other members to enable the ARF to begin to develop a preventive diplomacy capacity. The countries of the region will need to remain alert to emerging regional problems and be willing to respond, including through drawing on the gradually evolving mechanisms of the ARF.
Australia has an interest in global developments that impinge on its national security and the security of its region. Prominent among these global security issues is the potential for the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) -nuclear, chemical and biological and the means of their delivery. Non-military threats to security include pandemics, piracy, illegal migration, refugee flows, environmental degradation, narcotics and transnational crime.
Specific Regional Issues of Concern
Korean Peninsula
Stability on the Korean Peninsula is of vital importance for the wider region because of the potential for events there to affect relations among tile major powers and the economic welfare of the whole region. Australia was encouraged by the steps taken in the past year towards North-South reconciliation, notably President Kim Dae-jung's historic visit to Pyongyang, and looks forward to a further inter-Korean summit taking place. Australia strongly supports dialogue with the DPRK and the inter-Korean process. The 1994 Agreed Framework and its Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organisation (KEDO) make a major contribution to the stability and development of the Korean Peninsula. Australia strongly supports KEDO, including through financial contributions.
The DPRK has continued to engage with the international community and regional bodies, including through membership of the ARF (which was strongly supported by Australia), and to refrain from actions that could add to tensions in the region, such as further missile testing, production and export. Australia is concerned, however, that the security situation on the Peninsula is fundamentally unchanged, and that serious security and proliferation issues remain to be resolved. The Australian Foreign Minister visited the DPRK in November 2000 following the resumption of diplomatic relations in May that year. Australia was pleased to welcome DPRK Foreign Minister Paek Nam-sun to Australia from 28-30 June, during which broad ranging talks were held on the development of bilateral relations, as well as regional security and humanitarian issues. Australia will continue to pursue a comprehensive and balanced dialogue with the DPRK, including on nuclear and missile issues. Australia has been providing DPRK experts with training in nuclear safeguards -the International Atomic Energy Agency's global nuclear non-proliferation verification system.
South China Sea
The situation in the South China Sea remains of concern. Australia does not take a position on competing claims in the South China Sea, which is a matter for the parties to resolve, but we do have a close interest in developments there. Heightened tensions and rivalry between claimants could adversely affect the broader security of the Asia-Pacific region. Shipping routes important to Australia and major regional economies pass through the disputed area. We are encouraged that claimants continue to discuss their differences, including in the ARF. Keeping the ARF informed of developments helps to assure the region that claimants are managing their differences on an issue which has broader regional security implications. Australia supports continued co-operation and efforts among claimants to establish a Code of Conduct for the disputed areas in the South China Sea.
South Asia
The situation on the Indian sub-continent, especially with regard to Kashmir and nuclear weapons issues, remains of regional security interest. Australia continues to urge both India and Pakistan to exercise restraint, to commit themselves to the principles of nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation, and to resume dialogue within the framework of the Lahore Declaration. Australia welcomes Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee's decision to invite the Pakistan Chief Executive, General Musharraf, to India and hopes that the resumption of high level dialogue might lead to progress in resolving the outstanding bilateral differences between lndia and Pakistan. For its part, Australia hopes to deepen its engagement on security issues with India through the establishment of a strategic dialogue later this year.
South Pacific
Last year saw long-standing problems erupt in Fiji and Solomon Islands, with the outlook also difficult for many of the other small Pacific states, particularly in Melanesia. But there are welcome signs of island countries accepting collective responsibility for addressing the security crises in Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) members states, such as through the Biketawa Declaration adopted at last year's PIF meeting. There have been favourable developments in Fiji recently, with democratic elections now promised for the period 25 August -1 September under the Constitution upheld by Fiji's Courts. But the outlook for Solomon Islands remains problematic, despite Australia's strong support for a peace process that has stopped inter-ethnic fighting there.
The last six months have witnessed a number of significant breakthroughs in the negotiations for a settlement of the Bougainville dispute with agreement reached on the terms of a referendum to determine the political future of the province and agreement on a weapons disposal plan. Negotiations are continuing on the details of the terms of autonomy for the province. It is expected that an overall settlement could be reached soon thus bringing to an end one of the longest running conflicts in the South Pacific. Australia has continued to play a leading role in facilitating a settlement and convened a meeting in Townsville in February 2000 of all parties to the dispute to advance consideration of a weapons disposal plan. Australia continues to lead and equip the nearly 200 strong Peace Monitoring Group, while Australia's aid program to Bougainville of A$135 million over five years will have been dispersed by mid 2002 contributing significantly to the restoration of services and facilities on the island.
Indonesia
Australia welcomes the continuing commitment of Indonesia 's political leaders to resolve the current political impasse in a peaceful and constitutional manner. Indonesia's territorial integrity and political and economic stability remain vital for the broader security of the region The current discussions on special autonomy for Irian Jaya and Aceh present an historic opportunity for Indonesia to address separatist pressures in these provinces in a peaceful and consultative fashion. It is important that countries in the region and the international community remain engaged and supportive of Indonesia's efforts to undertake economic and structural reform.
East Timor
Australia and the region 's interest is in a stable and secure East Timor with constructive relations with its neighbours, especially Indonesia. We strongly support continued close relations with East Timor and ASEAN, and appreciate the support lent by ASEAN and other ARF members to East Timor, including through contributions to UNTAET. Australia supports East Timor's eventual membership of ASEAN, and the ARF. There is a critical need for continued international support for East Timor in the lead-up to and after independence. Australia notes that UN Security Council Resolution 1338 emphasises the need for a substantial international presence after independence, including a security component. Australia remains concerned at ongoing militia activity and the situation of refugees in west Timor. It is important that security in west Timor is improved, including action against the militia, to create conditions for the return of UNHCR and to ensure refugees are able to decide freely about their future. International support for the timely establishment of the East Timor Defence Force is also critical as this will impact on the nature and length of operation of the post-independence peacekeeping operation.
Nuclear, missile and disarmament issues
The security outlook of our region is greatly influenced by the extent to which we can restrict the proliferation of WMD and their delivery systems. The negotiation, conclusion and implementation of globally-binding and verifiable disarmament and arms control regimes has been the approach adopted by the international community to limit the spread of WMD. The greater the level of ratifications and support for those regimes from ARF members, the greater the capacity of those regimes to enhance regional security. The Nuclear Non- Proliferation Treaty underpins the non-proliferation norm in the nuclear field and the successful outcomes of the 2000 NPT Review Conference strengthened that norm. Australia urges ARF members to conclude Additional Protocols with the IAEA to demonstrate commitment to the strengthened safeguards regime. Ratifications by ARF members of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty remain low and further ratifications will contribute significantly to reinforcing regional security, as well as hastening the entry into force of the Treaty. Australia remains committed to securing an effective and credible Biological Weapons Protocol by the Fifth BWC Review Conference in November 2001 and urges all ARF participants to remain constructively engaged in the negotiations. More ratifications of the Chemical Weapons Convention would also benefit the region.
Australia is concerned about the threat to regional and global security arising from the proliferation of ballistic missiles capable of delivering weapons of mass destruction over long distances Restraint by ARF members in the production, use and transfer of long range ballistic missiles is also important to regional security. Australia encourages ARF members to give careful consideration to the draft "International Code of Conduct against missile proliferation" which has been developed by members of the Missile Technology Control Regime. Australia understands the rationale behind US plans to develop a missile defence system which is designed to protect against the threat posed by ballistic missile attack and unauthorised or accidental launches.
Small arms
The spread and accumulation of small arms through illicit trafficking in the Asia Pacific region contributes tangibly to increased lawlessness, criminal activity, and political and economic instability. Australia believes that coordinated, complementary efforts at national, regional and international levels will help generate an effective international response to the small arms issue. In this respect, Australia has encouraged ARF members to support an initiative for an ARF declaration on small arms and is working with likeminded Governments to assist South-Pacific states to address small arms-related problems.
Transnational Crime
Finally, the increasing scope and intensity of transnational crimes has expanded the regional security agenda. Money laundering, piracy and trafficking in drugs, people and small arms are issues of particular concern. Better management of these issues requires greater regional coordination in information exchanges, cooperation between national law enforcement agencies, and greater alignment at higher policy levels. Australia believes that transnational crime issues could be usefully considered in ARF confidence-building-measure activities.
Domestic Developments
Defence White Paper
Australia produced a Defence White Paper during 2000, which provides a long term basis for
Australian defence capability planning and development. The White paper reaffirms that Australia takes a broad view of security that goes beyond military and defence issues. The paper emphasises that Australia seeks to work with other countries to achieve our strategic objectives, and that this cooperation is possible because our strategic interests are compatible with the interests of other countries in the region. It notes the special importance to Australia of relationships with the three major powers and largest economies in the region -the United States, Japan and China, and with our largest neighbour - Indonesia. Australia provided a briefing to ARF members on the White Paper at the ISG on CBMs in Kuala Lumpur.
Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting
The most notable priority on Australia's domestic security calendar for 2001 will be the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) in Brisbane, and its associated events, such as the Commonwealth Business Forum in Melbourne. While Australia does not foresee any specific threat to the CHOGM at this stage, preparations for security arrangements for the meeting are well underway, involving both State and Federal agencies. These preparations are based on those successfully demonstrated during the Olympics in Sydney 2000, and will have been thoroughly revised and exercised well in advance of the meeting.
