US-ASEAN-JAPAN-CHINA-SKOREA - 03/17/2004 08:10 - AFP
WASHINGTON, March 16 (AFP) - Powered by 60 percent of the world's
foreign exchange reserves, East Asia should have an effective
mechanism for exchange rate cooperation that can resist US pressure
on currency and trade policy, experts said Tuesday. Finance
ministers of East Asian economies Japan, China, South Korea and the
10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)
have just started to discuss exchange rate issues. But the "ASEAN
plus three" meeting has not graduated to exchange rate cooperation,
like the forum of the Group of Seven finance ministers and central
bank governors. Speaking at a conference in Washington on the future
of economic relations between the United States and East Asia, a
special adviser to the Japanese cabinet proposed that the East Asian
countries "considerably strengthen" the meeting among their finance
ministers "as a body for exchange rate cooperation by including
central bank governors." Such cooperation could include the current
issue of undervaluation of the Chinese yuan, said Haruhiko Kuroda,
who is also a professor at Japan's Hitotsubashi University. "Since
the renminbi issue is far more serious for East Asian economies than
the US or Europe, this should be welcomed," said Kuroda, a former
vice-minister of finance. The United States especially wants the
yuan, which has been firmly fixed to the greenback, to be revalued,
arguing that Chinese authorities have kept the currency artificially
depressed in order to increase the competitiveness of Chinese
exports. The yuan is also undervalued against the other East Asian
currencies, eroding the international competitiveness of their
economies. Kuroda said that if ASEAN countries wanted a "stable
exchange rate relationship" by pegging their currencies to a common
currency basket -- a long term aim of the 10-member group, "then the
ASEAN plus three can become the G4 (Japan, China, South Korea and
ASEAN) and facilitate far more effective cooperation in the region."
But he said any exchange rate cooperation as broad as that among the
United States, Japan and East Asia would not be easy. Kuroda said
another way for cooperation was to invite the Chinese finance
minister and central bank governor to the G7 ministerial meeting to
discuss exchange rate issues. "This could be and should be done,
once the renminbi is adjusted and capital controls (in China) are
relaxed," he said. "Then G7 countries and China should jointly
monitor the exchange market and cooperate as necessary. At that
point, the structure of the G7 itself might need to be reviewed."
Japan is the only Asian nation in the G7 umbrella of industrialised
nations. Randall Henning, a fellow at the Washington-based Institute
for International Economics, said US pressure on East Asian states
for adjustment of their exchange rates was also likely to motivate
regionalism. "China is now the lightning rod for protectionism in
the United States that Japan represented a decade ago," he said.
"Korea may not completely escape being targeted either." Malaysia,
which moved to peg its ringgit currency against the US dollar
against the wishes of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), is also
under pressure from many groups to refloat its currency. Henning
said as Washington continued to press, East Asians would have an
"incentive to put aside and reconcile (not dismiss) their
considerable differences and reach a modus vivendi on financial
questions of common interest. "Because I expect US pressure to
continue, off and on, and East Asian reserve holdings to remain very
high relative to the region's voting power in the IMF, I am
confident that the regionalism will continue to have political
momentum for quite some time in East Asia," he said. The 13 East
Asian economies now hold more than 60 percent of the world's foreign
exchange reserves totally 1.6 trillion dollars. But they hold less
than 13 percent of the quotas in the IMF, to which voting shares are
closely tied. This creates another incentive for East Asian
cooperation -- lending reserves when the need arises bilaterally or
regionally at their own terms, the conference was told. pp/mk