ASEAN-FINANCE - 04/07/2004 17:01 - AFP
by Martin Abbugao
SINGAPORE, April 7 (AFP) - Southeast Asia's economies are poised
to grow by nearly six percent this year, their sharpest growth since
the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis, the region's finance ministers
said at their annual meeting Wednesday. The ministers painted a
buoyant picture of the region's growth prospects after seven years
of major setbacks that began with the financial crisis and included
terrorist attacks and the outbreaks of Severe Acute Respiratory
Syndrome and bird flu. "We expect our region to continue its growth
momentum in 2004 with a projected GDP (gross domestic product)
growth of 5.5 to 5.9 percent," the ministers said in a joint
statement at the end of their one-day summit. "Growth is expected to
be broad-based, with both domestic and external demand providing the
impetus for expansion." Singapore Deputy Prime Minister Lee Hsien
Loong, in a keynote address to the one-day summit, said the
economies of most Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)
members had recovered strongly from the continued setbacks. "ASEAN
has taken quite a few hard punches in the last few years. Although
we might have been bruised, we are far from being knocked out," said
Lee, who is also Singapore's finance minister and prime minister in
waiting. "Now, most ASEAN economies are on the mend. Economic growth
has been strong in many countries. Exports are growing and stock
markets are up... ASEAN is now back on its feet and up and running
again." If achieved, the 5.9 percent growth will be the best
performance for the ASEAN grouping since the financial crisis and
should bolster confidence in the region amid increasing competition
from giant neighbours China and India. ASEAN GDP grew 7.3 percent in
1996, slowing down to 4.14 percent in 1997. It contracted a whopping
7.14 percent in 1998 as the full impact of the crisis was felt
before recovering to expand at 3.58 percent in 1998. GDP expanded
5.85 percent in 2000, and slowed down to 3.19 percent the following
year. Growth as at 4.5 percent in 2002 and 5.0 percent in 2003.
However, the figures are still nowhere near the high-flying growth
rates in the decade before the crisis. And the finance ministers
also cautioned there were "downside risks" to the growth prospects,
in particular the impact of the widening current account and fiscal
deficits in the region's main export markets, such as the United
States. Faced with a growing current account deficit and a weak
dollar, the United States has been pressuring China and other Asian
countries to allow their currencies to strengthen against the
greenback to correct the imbalance. Washington has alleged that
regular interventions by Asian central banks to keep their
currencies weaker than their real valuations have unfairly made US
exports costlier. The finance ministers, however, said in their
statement any currency adjustments by their central banks must be
gradual "so as to avoid putting undue stress on the global and
regional economic prospects." "In this respect, the ASEAN countries
have adopted demand-strengthening policies which will play a
positive role in the global adjustment process." Singapore's second
finance minister, Lim Hng Kiang, who chaired the meeting, warned
that "too sharp an adjustment will put undue stress on the financial
markets." Meanwhile, the ministers said they had made progress in
efforts to liberalise the financial sector, a crucial pillar of
ASEAN's ambitions to create a common market by 2020. ASEAN groups
Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, the
Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. mba/kma/dv